Title: “The New Norm? Modeling Population Vulnerabilities to Ever-Frequent Hurricanes”
Abstract:
Introduction
The effects of a changing climate on public health are significant and widespread. Rapid and frequent changes in external, abiotic factors set the stage for conditions that fuel the development of extreme weather events. In the face of these threats, it is critical to improve our forecasting abilities on the effects of these severe storms to develop life-saving preparedness for the most vulnerable communities and emergency personnel. Additionally, successful forecast models can provide proactive solutions to strengthen susceptible infrastructure and improve natural coastal protections.
Methods
Using sociodemographic and other household data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we have identified demographics of at-risk populations residing within 100 miles of the U.S. East and Gulf coasts. We also collected data on the 25 most costly hurricanes, stratified over the last 30 years by category of intensity, from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. In ArcGIS Pro, we linked this data by GeoIDs at spatial resolutions no greater than block level. Analysis in JMP software and R summarized high-risk populations.
Results/Discussion
Layering census data with hurricane damage characteristics, our data demonstrates death tolls surmounting to at least 6,854 people in this sample, with an economic toll tallying $1.37 trillion USD. Hurricane Katrina contributes the highest cost in damage as a category 3 storm at landfall, and category 1 Hurricane Sandy incurred 88.5 billion in damages, indicating that storms varying in severity still exhibit extensive burdens on communities. On average, these hurricanes cost $57.2 billion USD and result in 24 direct deaths each, with indirect death counts much higher. Approximately 47.5 million people reside in the most susceptible regions prone to inundation, severe winds, and flash flooding. These results contribute to a robust early warning system model that predicts which high-risk populations will need resources, and thus, provide targeted preparation to support priority evacuations prior to landfall. The model produced from this research is derived from the 25 highest-cost hurricanes, which is not necessarily representative of all tropical storms. Further research should investigate other public health concerns that arise from natural disasters.
