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Event Date: 

Monday, October 30, 2017 - 12:00pm

Event Location: 

1345 Health Sciences Learning Center

Contact Info: 

Patty Grubb, pagrubb@wisc.edu, (608) 265-0516

PHS Monday Seminar: Paul J. Block, "Can Season-Ahead Cyanobacteria Forecasts Improve Lake Mendota Beach Management?"

Abstract:

As eutrophication and the associated dominance of cyanobacteria continue to increase across the Yahara chain of lakes, local officials are seeking novel methods to proactively manage water resources. Presently, however, there is no long-term cyanobacteria forecast that can provide advance warning of potential threats in the upcoming season for beach managers. In this study, a statistical model is developed to evaluate the potential for informative cyanobacteria biomass and beach days closed predictions across the June-August season.  Model performance, including verification of the 2016 and 2017 summer seasons, will be presented.  To further assess the potential application and value of such forecasts, local stakeholders (non-profit organizations, University of Wisconsin – Madison affiliates, and government agencies) were invited to participate in a qualitative study and focus group discussion session. Outcomes indicate an expressed interest for integrating forecasts into current beach management practices, particularly for the purpose of improving public safety and increasing public awareness.  We conclude that there is clear untapped potential for the application of season-ahead forecasts to local beach management.

Health Sciences Learning Center

Supplemental Materials: 
PDF icon october_30_2017_-_block.pdf